Template talk:Spell probability table: Difference between revisions
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
(some town names don't fit in one monospaced column, so spread them over two lines to preserve alignment) |
(→The real chances: new section) |
||
| Line 77: | Line 77: | ||
: I'm fine with that. I'll leave it up to your discretion. ―[[user:imahero|imahero]] 08:25, 31 May 2018 (CEST) | : I'm fine with that. I'll leave it up to your discretion. ―[[user:imahero|imahero]] 08:25, 31 May 2018 (CEST) | ||
== The real chances == | |||
"The values in this table are based on the rough, simplistic formula (1-(1-(x/100))y). The real values will be slightly higher. If someone wants to calculate the real values and edit this table, go for it!" | |||
I believe you, but why is that? I was certain that we can graph it as following: | |||
: c% chance for spell to appear in slot 1 | |||
: (1-c%) * c% chance to appear in slot 2, given it did not appear in slot 1 (since spells cant repeat) | |||
: (1-c%)^2 * c% chance to appear in slot 3, given it did not appear in slots 1 and 2 (since spells can't repeat) | |||
: . . . | |||
: (1-c%)^k-1 * c% chance to appear in slot k, given it did not appear in slots [1:k] (since spells can't repeat and if it did appear in slot 1, it wouldn't in 2 and so on). | |||
This can be written as SUM(i=0 to i=k) [(1-c%)^i-1 * c%), and simplified to 1 - (1-c%)^k (since probabilities always add up to 1). But apparently this formula is incorrect - why? [[User:Csaros|Csaros]] ([[User talk:Csaros|talk]]) | |||
Revision as of 13:06, 6 October 2024
Tried to find any ingame proof for strange 1-2% inequalities kind of 88/89% for Magic Arrow in Dungeon/Necropolis. The only source I've found was SPTRAITS.TXT file and the whole picture there looks like:
% Chance to gain Rampart Inferno Dungeon Fortress Name Level Castle Tower Necropolis Stronghold Conflux Bless 1 10 5 5 0 0 3 3 5 5 Bloodlust 1 0 0 0 10 5 5 10 5 5 Cure 1 10 10 5 5 0 5 5 10 5 Curse 1 0 0 3 5 10 5 0 0 0 Dispel 1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Haste 1 5 10 5 5 5 10 5 10 10 Magic Arrow 1 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Prot. from Water 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Protection from Fire 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Shield 1 10 3 5 3 10 5 5 5 5 Slow 1 5 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 10 Stone Skin 1 5 5 10 5 10 5 10 5 5 Summon Boat 1 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 3 3 View Air 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 View Earth 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Blind 2 4 6 2 12 4 4 4 6 8 Death Ripple 2 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 Disguise 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 0 2 Disrupting Ray 2 6 4 6 12 4 6 6 6 8 Fire Wall 2 4 4 4 12 4 4 4 4 8 Fortune 2 4 6 4 4 2 2 4 4 2 Ice Bolt 2 50 50 6 0 6 6 4 50 25 Lightning Bolt 2 4 4 50 20 6 50 50 4 25 Precision 2 6 6 4 8 2 6 4 4 2 Protection from Air 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 Quicksand 2 4 4 6 4 4 4 6 6 4 Remove Obstacle 2 4 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 Scuttle Boat 2 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Visions 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 Weakness 2 2 2 2 8 4 4 4 4 4 Air Shield 3 4 8 8 2 4 4 8 4 4 Animate Dead 3 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 Anti-Magic 3 12 8 8 4 8 8 12 10 12 Destroy Undead 3 12 8 8 2 0 4 4 2 4 Earthquake 3 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 50 4 Fireball 3 8 8 8 50 12 16 12 2 12 Force Field 3 4 4 8 2 8 8 4 4 8 Forgetfulness 3 8 8 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 Frost Ring 3 16 16 16 0 12 12 12 4 12 Hypnotize 3 4 4 8 6 0 8 4 4 12 Land Mine 3 8 8 8 6 8 12 8 2 4 Mirth 3 4 4 4 2 4 4 12 2 4 Misfortune 3 4 4 4 6 8 4 4 2 4 Prot. from Earth 3 4 4 4 2 4 4 4 0 4 Teleport 3 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 8 Armageddon 4 0 0 0 5 5 10 0 0 0 Berserk 4 5 5 5 5 10 5 0 0 5 Chain Lightning 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10 Clone 4 5 5 10 5 5 5 0 0 10 Counterstrike 4 5 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 Fire Shield 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 Frenzy 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 Inferno 4 5 5 5 10 5 5 0 0 10 Meteor Shower 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10 Prayer 4 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 Resurrection 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 5 Slayer 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 Sorrow 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 Town Portal 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10 Water Walk 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10 Air Elemental 5 0 0 14 0 16 0 0 0 12 Dimension Door 5 0 20 14 16 16 16 0 0 13 Earth Elemental 5 0 16 14 16 16 12 0 0 12 Fire Elemental 5 0 0 0 16 0 12 0 0 12 Fly 5 0 16 16 16 16 12 0 0 13 Implosion 5 0 16 14 16 20 12 0 0 13 Magic Mirror 5 0 16 14 0 0 12 0 0 13 Sacrifice 5 0 0 0 20 16 12 0 0 0 Titan's Lightning Bolt 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Water Elemental 5 0 16 14 0 0 12 0 0 12
So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --ShushMaster (talk) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST) Besides, the current numbers are not totally correct: for example we have total 503% instead of 500% for tower without library' 1st lelel spells. --ShushMaster (talk) 06:07, 31 May 2018 (CEST)
- I'm fine with that. I'll leave it up to your discretion. ―imahero 08:25, 31 May 2018 (CEST)
The real chances
"The values in this table are based on the rough, simplistic formula (1-(1-(x/100))y). The real values will be slightly higher. If someone wants to calculate the real values and edit this table, go for it!" I believe you, but why is that? I was certain that we can graph it as following:
- c% chance for spell to appear in slot 1
- (1-c%) * c% chance to appear in slot 2, given it did not appear in slot 1 (since spells cant repeat)
- (1-c%)^2 * c% chance to appear in slot 3, given it did not appear in slots 1 and 2 (since spells can't repeat)
- . . .
- (1-c%)^k-1 * c% chance to appear in slot k, given it did not appear in slots [1:k] (since spells can't repeat and if it did appear in slot 1, it wouldn't in 2 and so on).
This can be written as SUM(i=0 to i=k) [(1-c%)^i-1 * c%), and simplified to 1 - (1-c%)^k (since probabilities always add up to 1). But apparently this formula is incorrect - why? Csaros (talk)